The Swartz Report: Timing the Market, Market Conditions and What’s Next?
Last Friday, the employees of Swartz + Associates met to discuss the balance of the year and looking ahead to the 2021 property tax season. With articles being written about the future of commercial real estate; whether it relates to the hospitality industry, the retail sector, re-configuration of shopping centers or changing the use of office buildings, one thing is certain – change is coming!
Timing
The timing of the change is much harder to predict, but it is fair to assume the dynamics of commercial real estate over the next 3-5 years will be quite different than what we have traditionally experienced. The question is, how will the county jurisdictions react?
As I have stated in previous blogs and as you may already be aware, property taxes levied against a property primarily are used for local school district funding. Between 60%-75% of the total property tax liability is used for public, local schooling. With the changes due to the coronavirus and the increase in virtual learning, demands for newer technology and equipment are straining the current budgets. There will be significant pressure on the county assessor’s offices to maintain current values or risk a reduction in property tax dollars collected in 2021 and beyond. This represents a major challenge for everyone; taxpayers, county assessment officials, investors, school districts, community colleges, ambulatory services, libraries… you get the idea.
How will the respective assessor’s offices react?
Most states define “Market Value” as “Value in Exchange” rather than “Value in Use”. Current market conditions and sales are the driving factors in this determination rather than historical data, such as leases in place and/or sales dating back 2-3 years. Based upon the current environment, we are monitoring the marketplace to see if leases are being renegotiated, rents are being deferred and/or if concessions are being offered to reduce vacancies. All of these issues will affect the valuation of a property, particularly if a county is obligated to value a property as it sits on its valuation date (typically January 1st).
In the Midwest: Iowa, Colorado and Missouri are all subject to re-valuation for the 2021 tax year, while, Kansas, Minnesota and Nebraska are subject to an annual assessment review. Many other states have caps in place as to how much the value can increase in a given year until there is a change in ownership. As you can see, it can be quite confusing. During our planning meeting we discussed these situations and how to best represent our clients in the jurisdictions they have property.
Next Steps
We will be working on expanding our presence in the Las Vegas market, as we believe changes in market value first appear in the Southwest (AZ, NV and CA) and the Southeast (FL and GA). With our Indurante office creating a presence in Las Vegas, this is a natural opportunity to grow the Swartz practice with existing clients and expanding our service to those with properties in Clark County.
The Indurante business will remain busy for 2021 as well. The pandemic has had an effect on many industries, and the railroads are certainly not immune. Railcars have had significant idle time and/or storage time due to decreased volume in the shipping of goods, products and materials. We have witnessed a steady decrease in rail activity throughout the year, but hopefully we will start to see an uptick. We are constantly reviewing the market to determine how these conditions are affecting the valuation of railcars and avenues we can review to insure “fair market value” is assessed to these assets.
As always, we appreciate the opportunity to represent your interests and thank you for thinking of us. If you should have any questions, please do not hesitate to reach out to me – .

In preparing for this month’s update, I reviewed my August 2019 blog for a little inspiration. I found many of the things I presented following my accident to be true today in the midst of a pandemic. The focus being holding your employees accountable and having them taking on more responsibility. This may be true even more so than a year ago.
Last Tuesday, my father had quintuple bypass surgery. Yes, no typo, five bypasses! The surgery went as well as anyone could have expected for a man turning 89 in November. What to do, what to do… In this Coronavirus environment, all one can do is offer emotional support for the family. There is no visitation at the hospital. No hugs, no holding hands, no “just being there”. Only phone calls, Zoom setups during the week and words of encouragement. The true providers are the nursing staff, who serve both the medical needs of the patient and the emotional needs during this pandemic. Truly unbelievable.
Last month, I mentioned one our employees, Mark Phillips,
We recently celebrated Father’s Day weekend and Juneteenth! I feel like Jimmy Kimmel and Steven Colbert as I write yet another blog from my home. The more things change, the more things remain the same……
This was a quote from a family member as we sat around the dinner table for the 50th consecutive day. That comment could not have held more truth. As we spent the last two weeks of March figuring out what in the world was going on and re-acclimated ourselves to a full household (this time full of consenting adults and not teenage children dealing with the pressures of adolescence, middle school and high school), April was filled with the “new routine”. April found three of us working our jobs remotely and the 4th finishing up second semester of his sophomore year of college.
One question we don’t have an answer for at this point is what the real estate market will look like going forward. Will office space (and the need for office space) change in look, feel and desirability? Over recent years, we’ve seen the exponential increase in online sales as consumers order more goods from the Internet and have them delivered directly to their residence. With stay at home orders in place, more people have turned to this mode of shopping, not only out of convenience but necessity.
Today, I participated in virtual roundtable discussion sponsored by the Greater Kansas City Chamber of Commerce. This one hour conference via Zoom, consisted of 68 small business owners (or high level decision makers within their respective companies).

Like most of us, I have been watching the sweeping changes occurring in our lives over the past 10 days. What started as a potential nuisance has developed into a complete crisis. Whether you believe we, as a nation, have over-reacted or have not yet done enough to do our part, this is a generational event which demands calm and patience. We must listen to, and adhere to our governmental officials, both at the local and national levels.


As we bid good-bye to 2019, I wanted to identify a few of the major events of the year and goals for the 2020 year.